USA
Risk Tier:LowElevatedHighCritical
Quarterly
2026-Q4
Risk Timeline
Centered on: 2026-Q4
History · Q0 · Outlook
ISO
Q-4
Q-3
Q-2
Q-1
Q0
Q+1
Q+2
Q+3
Q+4
USA22.7%
T2
22.7%
T2
22.7%
T2
22.7%
T2
22.7%
T2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
ISO
Q-2
Q-1
Q0
Q+1
Q+2
USA22.7%
T2
→
22.7%
T2
→
22.7%
T2
→
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
—
↑ rising→ stable↓ easingProbability follows tier color.
United States
USA
Selected · 2026-Q4
22.7%
vs previous→0.0pp
Tier
T2 · Elevated
Resilience
Moderate
Risk
Elevated Risk
Shock
0.1%
Outlook
→Stable
Primary Driver
World Bank WDI
lending_deposit_spread
Indicator Values
Score quarter: 2026-Q4Projection·Indicator panel: 2025-Q4
Projection context: score is projected, indicators remain clamped to latest available panel 2025-Q4.
Indicator
Layer
Value
Status
Source
Business Confidence
deposit_rate
supporting
0.791666666666667
watch
Fill: Regime median fillCapital Flow Reversal
capital_account_gdp
primary
0.1849260238798459
watch
Calculated: Capital account ratio derived from capital_account_balance divided by nominal_gdp_usd.Bank Liquid Reserves
broad_money_gdp · supporting
watch
Value
100.72434885096
Source
Banking Sector Size / GDP
broad_money_growth · supporting
watch
Value
5.38685537004175
Source
Business Confidence
deposit_rate · supporting
watch
Value
0.791666666666667
Source
Fill: Regime median fill
CA Deficit / GDP
current_account_gdp · primary
watch
Value
-4.12262463415284
Source
Capital Flow Reversal
capital_account_gdp · primary
watch
Value
0.1849260238798459
Source
Calculated: Capital account ratio derived from capital_account_balance divided by nominal_gdp_usd.
Showing 5 of 57 indicators